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当人民币升值时，进口中间产品的外币价格下降，使成本构成发生变化，降低成本的对外依存度，降低成本水平。企业进口原材料越多，该效果越显著。

举例可以说明。假设一个汽车加工装配企业，进口全部零部件装配出口，成本为100亿美元，在国内加工增值20％，按照1：10汇率计算，即增值200亿元人民币。而出口成本中，人民币与外汇的比例是200亿人民币：100亿美元，即1：5。总成本是1200亿人民币。

如果人民币升值20％为1：8，进口成本100亿美元（800亿元人民币），国内200亿人民币支出不变，成本中人民币与外汇的比例会变成200亿人民币：800亿人民币，即1：4。总成本是1000亿人民币，按照人民币计算降低了20％，可以抵消出口价格的上升，因此企业可以不涨价，出口不会减少。

在上述的分析中，假设的前提是：不扩大投资，没有技术进步。但是，企业也可以选择扩大投资、提高技术水平、提高出口价格的办法。因为人民币升值20％，使得进口原材料、零部件和成品的价格全部降低了20％。企业可以不再进口零部件，而把节约下来的外汇集中进口先进的技术设备和原材料，把自己的组装企业变成加工企业，以获得更多的增值收入。这时候，企业成本中外汇的比例还会降低，因为国内增值部分是人民币。但是总的进口可能增加，因为随着技术进步，生产规模往往扩大。

人们最担心的劳动密集型产品出口价格提高，其实是有好处的。一条裤子在美国卖50美元，现在提高到60美元，没有理由认为美国消费者就会不卖裤子，或者转向墨西哥购买。即使如此，我国减少廉价劳动密集型产品出口数量而提高售价，也不会降低出口金额，同时可以减少国际贸易摩擦。

劳动密集型产业的出路是升级换代。规范的宏观经济分析是短期分析，假定没有技术进步和体制创新，这在中国是不适用的，因为中国正处在加速技术引进和体制改革时期。对于汇率升值对于企业的影响，必须进行动态分析。

一台普通25寸彩电在美国卖200美元，价格提高到230美元，可以转向中国农村降价销售。企业应引进先进技术，生产新型大屏幕、多媒体彩电在美国销售，价格还可以大大提高。机电产品本来就是要持续快速地升级换代的，人民币升值降低了企业进口新设备和原材料的成本，正可促进这一过程。国家必须支持出口产品升级，但是不能使用货币汇率政策，而应使用财政政策如出口退税，加速折旧等。货币政策解决总量问题，财政政策解决结构问题，不能混淆。为保持人民币不升值而降低出口退税率，以降低技术进步速度来消化外汇储备压力，是不合适的。

中国的出口25年以来从95亿美元增加到4000亿美元，但贸易条件没有改善甚至出现恶化，贸易结构有“一高一低”的特点。“一高”是劳动密集型产品比重过高，“一低”是指高技术高附加值产品出口比重低。依靠廉价劳动密集型产品的数量扩张实现出口导向战略，在中国持续25年，已难以为继。国际对华反倾销直线上升，2003年上半年中国受到12起反倾销起诉，在WTO成员中排名第一位。为缓解反倾销的势头，中国也应该促进劳动密集型产业向劳动－－－资本－－－技术密集型产业的转型，实现比较优势的动态升级，而人民币升值是符合这一战略的。

When the appreciation of the renminbi, the currency of imports of intermediate goods prices fell, the changes in the cost structure, lower the cost of external dependence, lower cost level. More enterprises import raw materials, the effect of the more notable.

For example illustrates that. Assuming a vehicle processing and assembly enterprises, import-export all parts assembly, the cost of 10 billion US dollars in domestic processing value-added 20%, according 1:10 exchange rates, that is, value-added 20 billion yuan. While exports costs, the proportion of the renminbi and foreign exchange is 20 billion yuan: 10 billion US dollars, that is 1:5. The total cost is 120 billion yuan.

If the RMB is revalued 20% for the 1:8, imports cost 10 billion US dollars (80 billion yuan), domestic 20 billion yuan expenditure unchanged, the cost of the renminbi and foreign exchange ratio will become 20 billion yuan: 80 billion yuan, or 1 : 4. The total cost is 100 billion yuan, calculated in accordance with the RMB reduced 20%, offset by the rise in export prices, enterprises can not price hikes, exports will not be reduced.

In the above analysis, the hypothetical premise is: do not expand investment, no technological progress. However, enterprises can also choose to expand investment and raise the level of technology and enhanced export prices approach. Because of the appreciation of the renminbi 20 percent, making imports of raw materials, components and finished goods prices all decreased 20 percent. Enterprises can no longer import parts and components, and the foreign exchange savings will be used to focus on importing advanced technology and equipment and raw materials, and have its own assembly enterprises into processing enterprises to gain more value-added income. This time, corporate costs will be lowered the proportion of foreign exchange, in part because of domestic value-added renminbi. However, the total imports may increase, because as technology advances, often expanding production scale.

The people most worried about the higher prices of labor-intensive products exports is actually beneficial. A pants in the United States to sell 50 US dollars, now raised to 60 US dollars, and no reason to believe that American consumers will not sell trousers, or to Mexico to purchase. Even so, China's cheap labor-intensive products to reduce export volume increased price and will not reduce the amount of exports, at the same time could reduce international trade friction.

Labor-intensive industries is the way out for upgrading. The norms of the short-term macroeconomic analysis, assuming no technological progress and system innovation, and this does not apply in China, because China is still in accelerating structural reform and technology introduction period. The exchange rate appreciation for the impact, the need for dynamic analysis.

A common 25-inch color televisions in the United States sell 200 US dollars, the price increased to 230 US dollars, China's rural areas can be shifted sales prices. Enterprises should introduce advanced technology, new production of large-screen, multi-media color TV sales in the United States, prices could also greatly enhanced. Electromechanical products have been sustained and rapid and is to upgrade the appreciation of the RMB reduce the scale of import new equipment and raw materials costs, is to facilitate this process. The state must support export product upgrading, but not the use of currency exchange rate policy and fiscal policy should be used as export tax rebates, such as accelerated depreciation. The total monetary policy to solve the problem, fiscal policy address structural problems, we can not confuse. To keep the RMB appreciation does not reduce the export tax rebate rate, the speed of technological progress to reduce the foreign exchange reserves to absorb pressure is not appropriate.

China's export 25 has been from 9.5 billion US dollars to 400 billion US dollars, but no improvement in the terms of trade even a deterioration of the trade structure "one high and one low," characteristics. "One high" high proportion of labor-intensive products, "a low" refers to the export of high-tech high proportion of low value-added products. Relies on cheap labor-intensive products to achieve the quantitative expansion of the export-oriented strategy, as China is constantly 25, has been difficult. International anti-dumping soaring in China, the first half of 2003 China was 12 prosecuted, the ranking members of the WTO in the first. To ease the momentum of anti-dumping, China should also promote labor - labor-intensive industries to capital and technology-intensive industries - the transformation to achieve the dynamic comparative advantage of escalation, and the appreciation of the renminbi is in line with this strategy.

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