这是第一部分http://zhidao.baidu.com/question/92918781.html
因为内容太长,,所以分为两次提问
第2部分内容如下:
What about the role of financial factors? Speculation and commodity financial investment are frequently mentioned as factors in recent oil price increases. However, there is little clear evidence that these factors have any systematic price impact. Both investment inflows into energy and oil funds and the net futures market positions of
noncommercial investors, for example, peaked in late 2007 and have since declined. Nevertheless, shifts in sentiment may well have some impact on short-term price dynamics, particularly given the lack of timely information about global market conditions. In addition, recent financial conditions likely exerted some upward pressure.Both U.S. dollar depreciation and the decline in real policy interest rates tend to push oil prices upward. The effects are primarily short-term,with scope for overshooting, but longer-term effects are possible through the effects on physical oil demand and supply.13 Oil prices have eased recently on (1) increased OPEC production (primarily in
Saudi Arabia); (2) data signaling a continued decline in U.S. oil demand that seems to reflect a growing demand response to high prices and not just slowing income; (3) prospects for lower growth in other major advanced economies; and (4) less-supportive financial conditions,given the U.S. dollar rebound. Looking ahead,oil demand growth is likely to moderate with the slower global growth envisaged for the second half of 2008 and for 2009. If recent production increases are sustained, near-term market conditions will thus be less tight and will support a decrease in prices below recent peaks, with some scope for further downward adjustment if the global downturn intensifies or the demand response to high prices further strengthens in advanced economies. Nevertheless, supply constraints and continued strong growth in emerging economies are likely to keep prices both well above pre-boom levels and subject to continued volatility.
PS;不要软件翻译过来的,,是你自己翻译的,,,,,先谢谢了