If the Renminbi revaluation's scope is oversized, or the opportunity grasps improper, will bring five big malpractices:
first, will be specially the labor-intensive form enterprise has the impact on our country Export enterprise. In the international market, our country product labor-intensive product's export value is lower than other country similar products price far particularly. Investigates its reason; first, our country labor force low in price; second, as a result of the intense domestic competition, causes the Export enterprise to do not hesitate the initial capital, competes to use the low price sale the strategy. Once the Renminbi revalues, for the maintenance similar Renminbi price agent, our country export products price which expressed with the foreign currency will improve, this will weaken its price competitive power; But must make the export products the foreign currency price to be invariable, will then extrude Export enterprise's profit space inevitably, this has no alternative but to be specially the labor-intensive form enterprise has the impact on the Export enterprise. second, does not favor our country to introduce the foreign direct investment. Our country is in the world introduces foreign direct investment most countries, at present the Foreign-funded enterprise in our country industry, the agriculture, service industry and so on each domain is playing day by day the obvious role, to promotes the technology advancement, to increase the labor employment, the export expansion, thus to promotes the entire national economy development to have the noticeable influence. After Renminbi revaluation, although to has invested in China the foreign merchant will not have the substantive influence, but to will soon come the foreign merchant which China will invest to have the adverse effect, because this will cause their cost of investment rise. In this case, they will possibly invest change other developing countries.
third, enlarges the domestic employment pressure. The Renminbi revaluation to the Export enterprise and the foreign direct investment's influence, will manifest finally in the employment. Because our country export products' majority is the labor-intensive product, the export will be blocked definitely will enlarge the employment pressure; The Foreign-funded enterprise provides one of additional employment post most departments, foreign capital decelerated growth, will cause the domestic employment situation to be more stern.
fourth, affects the money market the stability. If the Renminbi revalues, the massive foreign short-term speculative capital will take an opportunity, will hype the RMB rate wantonly. In the China money market growth also very much not perfect situation, this very easy to cause the finance money crisis. Moreover, the Renminbi revaluation can cause by the US dollar weight bank existing bad assets actual amount to further rise, does not favor the entire banking industry's reform and the debt structural adjustment.
fifth, the large amount foreign exchange reserve will face the shrinkage the threat. At present, China's foreign exchange reserve reaches as high as 659,100,000,000 US dollars, is only inferior in Japan occupies second in the world. The sufficient foreign exchange reserve is our country economic potentiality strengthens the important symbol which unceasingly, the level of opening up enhances day by day, is also we promotes the domestic economy development, the participation externally orientated economic activities powerful guarantee. However, once Renminbi revaluation, large amount foreign exchange reserve folding fan near shrinkage threat. If the Renminbi exchanges US dollar and so on main convertible currency to revalue 10%, then our country's foreign exchange reserve then shrinks 10%. This is the stern question which we can not but face. **
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